Aviation-Aerospace Economic Research
As we study the future of world markets, we see a very nice future for air freight. By 2025 we will most likely see an 85% increase and that will mean converting older aircraft and retrofitting them. And it will mean good things for Boeing and Airbus.
I expect many current aircraft flying passengers and taken out of capacity as this current sector rotation rounds out (fuel prices will increase that) and new more efficient aircraft come onto the scene. I predict that 66% of the growth will come from conversion of current passenger aircraft while there will be 33% new aircraft which do not require pilots at all. Flying freight around the world.
This will mean a market of over 170 Billion in retrofits and new aircraft for people like Pimco and Timco and others. If you look at these numbers you can see a future for laid off aerospace workers from Everett, Wichita, Dayton, Long Beach and other locations. With these aging aerospace workers it will most likely mean a need for newer entrants into that labor force. We would also say that 40% of such growth would be to service North America and her growing middle class as they partake in products from world markets.
With this increase we could expect the current 1700 plus air freight fleet to grow to over 3200 by 2025. Although these are long-term predictions they do account for normal cycles such as 15 year cycles or 2-3 year economic cycles. Also GE will benefit along with component makers of aircraft parts.
Even with the competition from Airbus we will see factories on US soil as well as components being made in other Asian markets, meaning the entire world will benefit from this sector in the next two-decades.
"Lance Winslow" - If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; www.WorldThinkTank.net/wttbbs
